After coming across an article about this year's compensatory draft picks I now know more than I did the other day about the rules for determining those compensatory picks.
The author, AdamJT13, claims to have a very accurate record in his projections for the previous seven years.
This year, he predicts the Titans will receive four compensatory selections, as follows.
Fourth round, 37th pick (136th overall) for losing Antwan Odom.
Fifth round, 36th pick (173rd overall) for Travis LaBoy. (It could possibly become a sixth-rounder.)
Sixth round, 33rd pick (206th overall) for Randy Starks.
Seventh round, 33rd pick (243rd overall) for Ben Hartsock.
Adam qualifies that by writing this could change a little under certain circumstances:
If Jacob Bell's value as a player lost for Tennessee falls into the range of a third-round comp pick, instead of a fourth-rounder as I projected, then the Titans would get a third-round comp pick for him instead of a fourth-round comp pick for Antwan Odom.
If Jake Scott's compensatory value is in the fifth round, then the Colts would get a fifth-round pick for him, and the Titans would get a comp pick for Jacob Bell (either in the third or fourth round) instead of a fifth-round comp pick for Travis LaBoy.
The intent of compensatory draft picks was to allow teams who lost more than they gained in free agency a chance to partially offset their losses. It was due to that policy that I wasn't expecting the Titans to receive any compensatory picks this year.
Drexel wrote a thought-provoking piece the other day, asking if the Titans were winners or losers in free agency. If asked that question about last year's offseason, I would have answered they were winners.
They weren't winners, however, according to the league rules determining compensatory picks. Jake Scott was the only player the Titans "gained" in free agency, while they "lost" six players. For one reason or another, additions like Jevon Kearse, Alge Crumpler, Chris Carr and Justin McCareins didn't qualify. Thus the four compensatory picks.
Not that I'm complaining about the extra four picks, I'll be happy to see the Titans get them. I hope Adam is right. Four extra picks would be quite welcome.
He also posted his article on a message board and answered some follow up questions about it. Click here if you care to read those.
Adam expects the league to announce the compensatory selections on the second day of the league meeting, March 23, which is one week from today. We'll find out then how accurate this year's projections are.