Examining the Titans' draft trends

Written by Tom Gower on .

As I did last pre-draft season, I thought it would be useful to look at some broad-scale trends regarding the Titans and the draft.

By position, here is what the Titans have done the past five seasons:

 

  1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd 4th Rd 5th Rd 6th Rd 7th Rd
"Skill Position" XXXX   XXX XX XX XX X
OL       X   X X
DL X XX XX XX     XXX
LB   XX X XXX      
DB     X XX XX XX XXX

Note for convenience sake I compressed quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end into a catch-all "skill position" category. Worth noting is you have six of these guys on the field at any one time, compared to five OL, four DL, two or three LB, and four or five DB. That the Titans have taken more "skill position" players than players at any other position is exactly what you would expect this chart to show.

For more perspective, here's how often the Titans have drafted which position compared to what the league as a whole has done the past five years:

  "Skill Position" OL DL LB DB
Titans 32.6% 7.0% 23.3% 14.0% 23.3%
League 32.7% 15.9% 17.0% 12.6% 20.3%

From this chart, it's very clear that the Titans do not actually draft a particularly large number of "skill position" players. What they have not drafted, we already knew, is offensive linemen, especially early in the draft. As I noted last offseason, this does not mean the Titans have not invested in the offensive line. Rather, they've done so just with money instead of just with draft picks or with a combination of money and draft picks.

By not spending draft picks on the offensive line, the Titans have "extra" picks. Those extra picks have gone not to the "skill positions" but to all the defensive, particularly the defensive line. I should stress here that the numbers involved are modest in absolute terms. The Titans have had 43 draft picks. Applying the percentage differentials, the Titans have drafted 3.8 fewer offensive linemen than the hypothetical average team, 2.7 more defensive linemen, 0.6 more linebackers, and 1.3 more defensive backs. That's over a five year period, which means so the differences outside of the offensive line and the defensive line are pretty insubstantial.

Other thoughts, many of which were true last year:

1. 2013 is the second draft for which Ruston Webster is the general manager. Mike Reinfeldt was general manager for four of the past five drafts. To the best of my understanding and belief, Mike Reinfeldt and Ruston Webster are different people and do not always agree with each other. The 2012 draft fit with several of the Titans' draft trends, but there is no guarantee at all the trends will continue.

2. The Titans draft defensive backs later than most teams. Talented corners in particular go early in the draft. The Titans have not taken a first- or second-round corner since Pacman Jones, and Ryan Mouton is the only corner they've taken in the third round since 2005.

3. Teams draft individual players, not positions and rounds. Further, drafts are an exercise in roster construction applied to specific team needs. The Titans have taken one offensive lineman in the first three rounds in the past 15 years. This year, the Titans have a glaring need for an immediate starter at right guard. I'll hit this in more detail in a subsequent post, but Ruston Webster has indicated the Titans are highly likely to take a player who can play right guard in the first three rounds. I strongly believe the Titans will take a right guard in the first three rounds, and don't care their draft history says otherwise.

no comments

Titans add Kevin Walter, Chris Spencer

Written by Tom Gower on .

The Tennessee Titan hit the free agent market again on Sunday, adding wide receiver Kevin Walter, formerly of the Houston Texans, and offensive lineman Chris Spencer, formerly of the Chicago Bears. Both players reportedly signed one-year deals for the veteran minimum.

When the Titans were first reported to be interested in Walter, I compared him to Justin McCareins c. 2008. Walter is slightly bigger (sort of, 6'3"/218 to 6'2"/217) and older (turning 32 in August, while McCareins turned 30 during the season), but both players are veterans whose only plus attribute is good blocking and whose production as a receiver will largely be the result of offensive design rather than them beating their man. Walter is not in my mind a lock to make the team, and I don't think his acquisition lets the Titans move on from Nate Washington any more than any other move they've made at the receiver position this offseason does. Rather, I think he's a different type of fifth/sixth receiver than Lavelle Hawkins; not better, mind you, but not worse and different.

In adding Spencer, the Titans fulfilled my request for somebody who's played right guard in the NFL before. Last year the Bears had him make the anti-Leroy Harris transition from right to left guard, and it apparently went about as well as Leroy's did. He made it two games before being benched, though he made it back into the lineup and started five of the ten games he was active. 2012 was his second season in Chicago. He spent the first six years of his career in Seattle after the Seahawks made him one of the rare centers drafted in the first round in 2005. I still believe the Titans are highly likely to draft a right guard early in this month's draft, but adding Spencer gives them a fallback option if need be for whatever reason. Like Walter, though, I would not classify him as a lock to make the team.

no comments

The Titans and the concept of value

Written by Tom Gower on .

I started putting together a post on how the Titans spent by position in 2012, like the one I did last offseason, when something I'd noticed before struck me.

There were 30 players who played at least 300 snaps on offense or defense for the Titans in 2012. And where did the Titans find those players?

Four of them were first-round picks playing on their rookie contract. That's Jake Locker, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, and Derrick Morgan.
Three of them were second-round picks playing on their rookie contract. That's Sen'Derrick Marks, Akeem Ayers, and Zach Brown.
Five of them were third-round picks playing on their rookie contract. That's Jared Cook, Damian Williams, Jurrell Casey, Mike Martin, and Ryan Mouton.
Three of them were fourth-round picks playing on their rookie contract. That's Colin McCarthy, Coty Sensabaugh, and Alterraun Verner.
Twelve of them were players not on their rookie deal signed to a contract with an average per year of at least $3 million. As I identified in last year's salary cap post, that's roughly the rate for a starter in the NFL. The players in this category were Matt Hasselbeck, Chris Johnson, Craig Stevens, Nate Washington, Leroy Harris, Steve Hutchinson, Michael Roos, David Stewart, Kamerion Wimbley, Will Witherspoon, Jason McCourty, and Michael Griffin.

That leaves the Titans with three players who played at least 300 snaps on offense on defense on whom they did not use a high pick and whom they were not paying a lot of money. One of those three was Deuce Lutui, who was an in-season pickup and only ended up playing any snaps at all because the starter, Leroy Harris, got hurt. One of them was Fernando Velasco. There may have been something like competition for the starting center job, but my belief is Velasco only played a significant role because Eugene Amano, whose contract had an APY of over $3 million (to say the least), got hurt. Take them away, and there was only one player the Titans did not invest premium resources to acquire that they gave a significant role to in 2012, strong safety Jordan Babineaux. And as we've seen from the deals this offseason, Babineaux got an APY of less than $3 million because non-premium strong safeties don't get contracts with an APY of $3 million.

The fundamental constraint of building a team in the NFL is limited resources. You only get so many high draft picks and so much cap space. To build a great team, you have to utilize your resources as efficiently as possible. This can mean making hard choices, paying some players and prioritizing some positions. The flipside of those hard choices is not paying other players and not prioritizing other positions.

What the Titans told us with the team they fielded in 2012 is they don't really believe in making those choices. At every single position on the team (and I could throw in punter and kicker here as well if my criteria didn't exclude them), they fielded either a player making a starting-type wage or a high draft pick. Every. Single. One.

The Tennessee Titans seem to have their own idea of value, and it's that there isn't any such thing. As a fan, I really hope they're right about that, but as an analyst, I'm pretty sure it's almost impossible to field a good team that way. The result in 2012 was not pretty, but we shall see what 2013 brings.

no comments

Assessing the Titans' roster after two weeks of free agency: Defense

Written by Tom Gower on .

We're now a bit over two weeks into free agency. The main rush has ended, and the Titans have made all the major moves they're likely to make. I thought it would be useful, as we approach the draft and the rest of the offseason to step back a little bit and see where the Titans stand, in terms of what they've done and what holes on the depth chart remain to be filled. I covered the offense earlier this week, which means it's time to cover the defense. As I did for the offense, I will go position by position.

Defensive Line
Moves: Re-signed Keyunta Dawson, signed Sammie Lee Hill, signed Ropati Pitoitua
Roster: Jurrell Casey, Zach Clayton, Keyunta Dawson, Thaddeus Gibson, DaJohn Harris, Sammie Lee Hill, Karl Klug, Mike Martin, Derrick Morgan, Ropati Pitoitua, Scott Solomon, Kamerion Wimbley
Commentary: I covered the defensive line at some length in my post on the Pitoitua signing, so I'll keep this relatively brief. The Titans right now have roughly three pure ends, one end-leaning tweener, and four, maybe four tackles. I think they like their tackles. I think they think they're relatively set at end, though they could still use an upgrade. I think they could be interested in another tweener. I think they have enough flexibility in their planning they could do almost anything in the draft, from taking a tackle (unlikely) or an end (likelier) in the first round to not addressing the position at all. There were technically five, realistically three holes on the depth chart, and the three moves they made filled them.

 

no comments

Titans add to defensive line with Ropati PItoitua

Written by Tom Gower on .

The Tennessee Titans on Monday added their second defensive lineman of the offseason who was both bigger and taller than any of their defensive lineman in 2012, signing free agent defensive end Ropati Pitoitua, formerly of the Kansas City Chiefs. Pitoitua's deal is reportedly a one-year one for about $1 million, with more available in incentives.

Pitoitua, who's listed at 6'8", 315 pounds, played 494 snaps (50%) for the Chiefs last year over 15 games (10 starts), the vast majority of them at defensive end in the Chiefs' 3-4 front. He spent 2009-11 with the Jets, with appearances in 8 games in 2009 and 14 in 2011 (no starts) sandwiched around a season on injured reserve. Consider him the man for the run-stopping defensive end role that was nowhere close to adequately filled before late-season acquisition of Jarius Wynn.

With the addition of Pitoitua, I thought it was worth taking a broader look at what the Titans have at defensive line, since this can be a slightly complicated exercise and I was planning on doing it anyway in my state of the roster after two weeks of free agency analysis post. Here's what the Titans had on the defensive line before adding Pitoitua:

DE: Keyunta Dawson, Thaddeus Gibson, Derrick Morgan, Scott Solomon, Kamerion Wimbley
DT: Jurrell Casey, Zach Clayton, DaJohn Harris, Sammie Lee Hill, Karl Klug, Mike Martin

With the addition of Hill, I thought the Titans were pretty much set at defensive tackle. Casey is the best player and somebody who will play a lot. I'll be saying more about Hill (as well as Pitoitua and the other free agents) when I have time to do so, but the Titans very likely see him as a major factor in the rotation. Martin in his second season will also likely be a major factor. Klug is a good fourth defensive tackle for a situational role.

no comments

Assessing the Titans' roster after two weeks of free agency: Offense

Written by Tom Gower on .

We're not quite two weeks into free agency, but the main rush has happened and the Tennessee Titans have very likely made all of the major moves they'll make, so I thought it would be useful to take a step back and see where the Titans stand, in terms of what they've done and which holes on the depth chart remain to be filled. I'll cover the offense in this post and the defense in a separate post. I will be doing things position by position.

Quarterback 
Moves: Released Matt Hasselbeck, signed Ryan Fitzpatrick
Roster: Nathan Enderle, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Locker, Rusty Smith
Commentary: Locker is your starter, Fitzpatrick the backup, Enderle and Smith compete for the third-string job. The Titans will add somebody for rookie minicamps, but there were no holes on the depth chart here and Fitzpatrick filled the one they created.

Running Back
Moves: Signed Shonn Greene, re-signed Quinn Johnson, re-signed Darius Reynaud
Roster: Darren Evans, Shonn Greene, Jamie Harper, Chris Johnson, Quinn Johnson (fullback), Collin Mooney (fullback), Darius Reynaud
Commentary: Javon Ringer's departure created a hole at RB-2, which was filled by the signing of Greene. Retaining QJ filled the hole his temporary departure created at FB-1, though with a modest signing bonus and minimum salaries, he's not a lock for the team. Do they look for an upgrade at RB3 over Evans/Harper?

 

no comments

Titans sign SS Bernard Pollard

Written by Tom Gower on .

The Tennessee Titans added another man to their defense on Thursday, signing strong safety Bernard Pollard. Pollard started 13 games each of the past two seasons for the Ravens, but Baltimore released him at the start of the new league year last week. It's reported to be a one-year deal.

Pollard is perhaps best known for his injury-causing hard hits, most notably on Tom Brady. As a player, he's a box safety, a hard-hitting run defender but somewhere between decent and abysmal in space. Good athletic tight ends will be able to take advantage of him, and he's no more than adequate for a strong safety in a two-deep look. Think of him as an undersized linebacker, which is the job the strong safety performs in a cover-3 look.

As to where he fits on the Titans, he's a younger player than George Wilson, not turning 29 until late this coming season, and the likely starter at strong safety. In that role, I'd say he's a slight upgrade from what Jordan Babineaux did in pass coverage in 2012, but the bigger difference will be in the run game. Pollard ranked second on the Ravens in tackles on run plays last year despite missing three games, and it was more than the linebackers; he's legitimately a factor there, and a very physical player who brings an element to the Titans they didn't have last offseason.

Whither Wilson then? The obvious answer is that Gregg Williams plays a lot of 3-2-6 and uses safeties as a rusher, Wilson and Pollard are both strong safeties, they'll be playing and rushing. I think that's actually overcomplicating things, though. Yes, we probably will see some 3-2-6. One thing Jerry Gray has done a lot of (too much, probably, in my book) has been to bring on extra defensive backs. The result, too often, has been the Titans getting gashed in the run game. A Pollard-Wilson combination gives the Titans the ability to play some Big Nickel, bringing on the extra defensive back Jerry Gray likes to have but at the same time improving the Titans against what they (rightly) identified as a major weakness last season and something opposing teams definitely recognized and exploited. Beyond that, having both Pollard and Wilson gives the Titans quality depth at the strong safety position, something they needed and lacked last year.

My guess is this move likely means the Titans are done with major additions at safety this offseason. The Titans are apparently still looking at run-stopping defensive ends, with the names Israel Idonije and Ropati Pitoitua being mentioned. They may also still be looking for a wide receiver, but Nate Washington's job appears safe for now.

no comments