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Written by Tom Gower | 15 January 2012

It's been kind of taken for granted that the Tennessee Titans' defensive improvement, especially against the pass, was the key to the surprisingly good 9-7 mark. The question that bugged me is, how much exactly did the Tennessee Titans' defense, particularly the passing defense improve? Rather than take a scouting-type look, I'll be concentrating on the numbers in this post.

Let's start with a couple first-level measures. The Titans gave up 4244 passing yards in 2010, and only 3809 in 2011. That's not bad, especially when NFL teams as a whole gave up 123 yards more. Of course, the Titans also faced more passing attempts in 2010 than they did in 2011, 625 compared to 591. In Yards Per Attempt numbers, the Titans' defense improved from 6.79 YPA to 6.45 YPA.

Of course, not every called passing play results in a passing attempt, as sacks also play a role. As we know, the 2011 Titans weren't as good at getting to the passer as the 2010 version. The 2011 Titans had 28 sacks for a loss of 180 yards, whereas 2010 saw 36 sacks for 212 yards. With those sacks added in, the 2010 Titans gave up 4032 yards on 661 plays, whereas this year saw 3629 yards on 619 plays. In Net Yards Per Attempt numbers, the Titans' defense improved from 6.10 NYPA to 5.86 NYPA.

Then again, pure yards numbers ignore that passing attempts sometimes result in particularly valuable plays for either the offense or the defense, namely yards or interceptions. We'll instead get to my favorite measure, adjusted net yards per attempt. To make the adjusted net yards per attempt calculation, add 20 yards for every passing touchdown allowed and subtract 45 yards for every interception. The 2010 Titans allowed 23 passing touchdowns and had 17 interceptions. In 2011, the Titans allowed 21 passing touchdowns and only picked off 11 passing. In Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, the Titans' defense went from 5.64 ANYPA to ... 5.74 ANYPA. The pass defense actually ... got worse?

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Written by Tom Gower | 13 January 2012

The Tennessee Titans today got busy and locked down one of their primary free agents, re-signing tight end Craig Stevens to a four-year deal estimated to be worth approximately $15 million. Stevens, originally a third round pick in the 2008 draft out of Cal, was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent when the new league year begins in March.

At first blush, giving a tight end with 21 receptions in four seasons a contract averaging close to $4 million a year seems like an extravagance, but Stevens was much more important to the Titans than his nine receptions for 166 yards this year would indicate. His receiving numbers are much more a product of the existence of Jared Cook, whose presence largely indicated the Titans were going to pass the ball, and when they did throw the ball to Stevens, it generally ended up working out pretty well. While Cook's continued presence probably means Stevens will not be a valuable fantasy option, they could probably throw to him an average of more than once a game. Stevens is also the Titans' only complete tight end, and perhaps the single best run-blocker the Titans have.

The one cautionary note I'd add is Stevens does have a bit of an injury history. He's missed one game each of the past two seasons, with rib and knee injuries respectively, and missed four games in 2009 with a couple concussions. The Titans are probably willing to live with the former, but the latter always scares me. Still, I'll be happy to see Stevens back in a Titans uniform this year, and even happier him sticking around means less of Jared Cook trying to block and Daniel Graham as a pass-catcher. no comments

Written by Tom Gower | 12 January 2012

Now that I've chosen offensive, defensive, and special teams most valuable players for the 2011 Titans, it's time to move on to some of the other awards. Some years this is an absolute no-brainer choice, simply for lack of options, but four rookies ended up seeing extensive playing time on the defensive side of the ball, and all of them brought some strengths to the table. Despite the efforts of Akeem Ayers, Karl Klug, and Colin McCarthy, though, my choice as the top rookie on the 2011 Tennessee Titans is defense tackle Jurrell Casey.

Casey, a third-round pick out of Southern California, didn't quite have the splash of Karl Klug, who led the team in sacks with 7.0, but was an immediate impact player, starting from day one, and ended up as the Titans' most consistent and consistently productive defensive lineman. He was involved in almost 50% more plays than any other defensive lineman.

In fact, by Football Outsiders numbers, he had more successful tackles on run plays than any other member of the Titans, and had almost as many successful plays in total as any other member of the Titans defense. To put that in comparison, last year Stephen Tulloch had more than twice as many successful plays as any defensive lineman. Many times when a player was involved in a play, it's because he was getting beat or making plays downfield. By contrast, Casey's rate stats were as good or better than any defensive lineman on this year's Titans team or last years. While he had 2.5. sacks and one forced fumble, he wasn't quite enough of a disruptive force to declare Dave Razzano was right when he declared Casey would end up looking like a top-seven pick, but he still had a fine rookie year regardless.

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Written by Tom Gower | 11 January 2012

I've already selected an offensive MVP (Matt Hasselbeck) and a defensive MVP (Cortland Finnegan), so now it's time to move on to the third phase of the game and select a special teams MVP. And with all due respect to punter Brett Kern, who set a franchsie record by averaging 39.4 net yards per punt this year, Rob Bironas is an easy choice as the 2011 Tennessee Titans special teams MVP.

There was a fair bit of wailing and gnashing of teeth in the preseason about Bironas's apparent possible struggles. I was much more sanguine in my expectations of him, and thought that even if he did have a more inconsistent season than he did in the past, he was still among the league's better kickers. Well, as it happened, he didn't have that inconsistent season.

In fact, Bironas had an exceptional season; by Football Outsiders numbers, his best as a kicker. He made all of his extra points, for the sixth season in a row, and made 29 of 32 field goals, with one of his misses coming from 67 yards away. His numbers weren't inflated by a lot of short makes either, as the Titans were pretty proficient at converting red zone possessions into touchdowns. The majority of his attempts (17 of 32) came from 40 yards and beyond, where kicking a field goal normally becomes a risky proposition, yet he only missed two of those, including that 67 yard attempt that would've broken the existing record by four yards.

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Written by Tom Gower | 10 January 2012

In writing up the post where I named Matt Hasselbeck the 2011 Tennessee Titans Offensive MVP, I thought about who I would have named in past seasons. 2009, Chris Johnson was an easy call. 2008, I think I did name Michael Roos, in honor of the overall team offensive effort. For 2010, it was Kenny Britt, with whom the Titans were a pretty good offense and without whom, well, they weren't much of an offense, even with Chris Johnson have a better year and giving more effort than he seemed to give in 2011. That got me thinking to what Kenny Britt could have done with a full season.

Let's start with Britt's raw numbers:
Receptions Targets Yards YPC TD
17 26 289 17.0 3

Remember, those numbers came in just under two and a half games. Let's prorate those five halves of football over a full season and see what we get:
Receptions Targets Yards YPC TD
109 166 1850 17.0 19

Those numbers would be kind of insane. But, you know, somebody actually did come sort of close to those numbers this year. Take a look at Calvin Johnson's numbers this year:
Receptions Targets Yards YPC TD
96 158 1680 17.5 16

This seems like an outlandish kind of comparison, doesn't it? I thought so at first, but here's some more info.
DVOA Catch Rate EYds/Gm
Britt 34.4% 65% 124.4
Johnson 32.7% 61% 119.1

I don't use FO's Effective Yards stat an awful lot, because it doesn't tell you much DVOA and targets don't, but it's a good way of combining the two. And while the catch rate is a little different, those lines look, well, kind of similar.

Obviously many more players have been on that kind of insane pace that have actually sustained that pace for an entire season, and Matt Stafford threw about 15% more passes than Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker combined, so Britt's numbers are even more unlikely to quite match what's projected here. If you wanted to describe just what Kenny Britt to the Titans in 2011 when he was actually in the lineup, though, you could do a whole lot worse than saying he meant as much to them as Calvin Johnson did to the Lions. Of course, having a healthy Britt for a full season is another thing...
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Written by Tom Gower | 09 January 2012

The Tennessee Titans were not a great offense in the first quarter. They struggled to sustain drives, and even in a game like the one against the Saints where they opponent wasn't scoring touchdowns, they were running a lot more plays than the Titans did.

The Tennessee Titans were not a great running team. They (by which I pretty much mean Chris Johnson) struggled to get into positive down-and-distance situations, and Matt Hasselbeck had to bail them out of too many third-and-long situations.

Would you be surprised to learn that these two facts happen to be connected? It's true. The first quarter was the quarter where the Titans really tried to pretend like they could run the ball effectively. Over the course of the season, they ran 76 rushing plays to 104 passing plays. That's still pass-heavier, yes, but running 42% of the time like that was a higher percentage of run plays than they called in any other quarter.  The other thing was, those first quarter running plays were particularly ineffective. The Success Rate on first-quarter rushes was only 29%. To put that in perspective, no NFL running back in the last five years who's gotten at least 100 carries has had a success rate worse than 34%. The running game got better, but only picked up in the second half. The passing game was mostly strong, except that it was awful in the third quarter.

Anyway, here's the full data dump in chart format:

Quarter Passes (Pct) Pass Success Rate Runs (Pct) Run Success Rate
1st 104 (57.8%) 42.3% 76 (42.2%) 28.9%
2nd 187 (68.5%) 44.4% 86 (31.5%) 36.0%
3rd 136 (64.4%) 34.6% 75 (35.6%) 46.7%
4th 191 (63.5%) 48.2% 110 (36.5%) 45.4%

If you want to say the Titans called too many rushing plays in the first quarter. I'm not going to disagree with you. If you want to know what happened to the passing game in the third quarter, well, you're on the same page I am. That, as they say, though, is a future post. no comments

Written by Tom Gower | 08 January 2012

I mentioned this in my post last week where I overviewed the offensive line, but the Tennessee Titans finished third in the NFL in Football Outsiders' Power rushing statistic on offense. Power runs are, well, here's the definition:  "Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks." As one of my enduring fascinations this season has been the Titans' devotion to passing the ball on third down this year, I thought it was worth taking a little bit more in-depth look at just how they managed this.

The first big surprise is that Chris Johnson was actually effective in Power situations. He had two carries on first-and-goal from the opposing one, and both times it results in a touchdown, against the Steelers and then against the Panthers.  He had four carries on third-and-one, and started off the season on a wrong note failing against the Jaguars, but then converted on his next three opportunities, against the Browns, the Steelers, and the Texans (his one good run the first matchup). He also had one fourth-and-one carry against the Saints, and converted it.

Ahmard Hall's killer fumble against the Texans notwithstanding, he was successful on his two Power carries, converting third-and-one against the Buccaneers and a fourth-and-one against the Saints.

Jamie Harper converted his lone first-and-goal from the one carry, against the Jaguars, and converted his third-and-one, against the Browns, but failed on third-and-two against the Colts. Harper, did, though, managed the only Titans' running conversion on third down and two or more on a called run play, when he picked up 12 yards on third-and-five agaisnt the Texans at the end of the game. Yes, the final third down of the season produced the only running back handoff first down on third-and-two or more.

The surprising culprit on third down was Javon Ringer, who had three carries on third-and-one and only converted one of them, against the Steelers. He was stuffed against the Broncos and also against the Panthers, though he redeemed those somewhat by picking up a first down on fourth-and-one against the Ravens.

With the kind of success, you might be wondering why the Titans would be so pass-heavy on third-and-short, calling thirteen pass plays to nine runs on third-and-one. The answer is, actually, as successful as the Titans were in converting six of nine runs, they converted an even better ten of thirteen called passes. Even on third-and-two, pass plays resulted in a first down six of nine times. When it came to fourth-and-short, no matter what they did the Titans were pretty successful, with their only failure on eights attempts on fourth-and-three or closer Jake Locker's failed sneak against the Saints. Whatever problems plagued the Titans' offense in 2011, they seem to be associated with not getting to third-and-short in the first place, but that's a subject for another post. no comments

Written by Tom Gower | 06 January 2012

The story of the 2011 Tennessee Titans defense, and how it compared to the 2010 version of the same defense, is a somewhat more complicated one than it seems at first blush, but one I'll sort out another day. For today's purposes, though, suffice it to say that when the Titans couldn't rush the passer the second half of 2010, the Titans' pass defense was horrid. In 2011, the Titans may have been even worse than they were at rushing the passer the second half of 2010, but the pass defense was better than horrid.

With largely the same personnel in the secondary, this improvement was an unexpectedly pleasant outcome. Thus my defensive MVP is the Titans' best defensive back in 2011. Notwithstanding my affection for Jason McCourty, that was cornerback Cortland Finnegan.

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Written by Tom Gower | 05 January 2012

Defensive MVP post should be coming tomorrow, unless I don't feel like writing it again today. FO colleague, and former All-Pac-10 offensive tackle, Ben Muth has been writing about the Titans' offensive line all year, and today put up an end of season wrap-up column giving sort of overview/recap takes on each of the Titans' five starting offensive linemen. I'm pretty much in agreement with his takes, though he's a little higher on Leroy Harris than I am. One thing Ben mentioned in my discussion with him when we sat down for a day of college football watching is center is a position that normally requires a very high degree of trust from the coaching staff. The trust factor the team has with Amano was, I'm sure, a big factor in the big extension he signed, and why I don't expect them to pursue an upgrade.

Along with Ben's column, I wanted to highlight a couple OL-related numbers from FO, especially in terms of year-on-year contrasts. When I wrote last season about the Titans' struggles running up the middle not being a new thing, I noted that the Titans were still relatively good at running outside. The particular strength last year ended up being on runs listed in the gamebook as at right tackle, where they ranked sixth in the NFL with 4.63 yards. That was actually slightly better than they ranked in 2009. Well, that changed. The Titans ranked no better than 24th in the league on runs in any direction, including runs around left end, where they were average in 2010.

Now, I believe the malaise at the running back position infected the team badly enough that even the FO numbers which try to strip out the effect of running back play are tainted and unreliable guides to offensive line play. The Titans' offensive line isn't great, but with an upgrade to even an average right guard, I believe they're well-capable of being a top ten rushing attack in the league. If you want more evidence of just how much things have changed with Chris Johnson, a great number to use is Open Field Yards, which measures how effective a back is at gaining more than 10 yards on any play. When CJ was CJ2k, the Titans ranked first in the league with a phenomenal 1.78 yards. Last year, that number slipped to 1.25, but that was still a respectable third. This year, they saw another sharp decline, to 0.81 yards, eighteenth in the league. Even what Chris Johnson was awesome at, he's now only average at.

But, hey, there was one silver lining. The Titans actually ranked third in the entire NFL in a good rushing statistic: Power, which reflects carries on third or fourth down and two yards to go or fewer, plus first and second-and-goal from the one or two. See what can happen when you run the ball about nine times all year on third-and-one? no comments

Written by Tom Gower | 04 January 2012

It occurred to me after I finished it that last night's post on defensive coordinator Jerry Gray talking turkey focused a little bit too much on the tremendous amusement I got out of Gray's media session comments, and didn't do a very good job of putting Gray's comments into a broader perspective. Thus, it's time for that.

First, Jerry Gray is learning. As I noted in last night's post, I was deeply concerned heading into the season that Gray (and possibly more of the Titans' brass) had fundamentally misidentified the source(s) of the Titans' defensive struggles the second half of 2010. This was reflected in Gray's offseason and training camp commentary and in the Titans' player acquisition strategy. The Titans went out and acquired guys like Shaun Smith and Barrett Ruud because they fit what Gray wanted on defense.

Well, guess what? Whatever Smith and Ruud's talents as players (and they do have talents), those strengths didn't actually help the Titans' defense as much as Gray thought they would. And we saw what happened: Ruud played less before going on injured reserve, and Smith remained healthy but saw his playing time gradually diminish to the point where former second-round bust Sen'Derrick Marks was taking an awful lot of the snaps that had been his in the defensive line rotation.

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