One of the things I've been involved with lately is getting KUBIAK, the Football Outsiders fantasy football product, ready for its release (set for Tuesday no later than noon ET). That includes projecting usage for the various Titans players, including particularly catches for the receivers. Note this post and all projections in it are simply my opinion and is not necessarily the same as KUBIAK's (or anyone else's) projections.
To get an idea as to how the Titans might target their players in 2013, I thought it would be useful to take a look at how the Titans under Mike Heimerdinger targeted their players. All the evidence we've gotten this offseason is this is the best available information we have. Dowell Loggains worked under Heimerdinger for years. Heimerdinger is generally regarded as having done a very good job for the most part. His offenses most years tended to fit how the Titans probably want to play offense this year. Kevin Walter talked about it being the same playbook he used in Houston, because Mike Heimerdinger, like Gary Kubiak, came from Denver.
The first cut I decided to make was to look at catches by position groups. Naturally, this depends on the talents in each position group. Fortunately, Heimerdinger was the Titans' offensive coordinator for 8 seasons, so we have a reasonable sample size to deal with. Some years, the Titans had a pretty lousy receiving corps (see, e.g., 2008). Other years, it was pretty good (2003). Some years, they threw the ball a lot to the tight ends (2000). Other years, not so much (2002).
Before we can get to the positional breakdowns, though, we need to establish a top-line number. In 2012, the Titans completed 318 passes. They very likely will complete fewer this season. Over the 8 seasons under Heimerdinger, the Titans had as few as 262 (2010) and as many as 355 (2004) completions, with an average of 294 per season. Seven of the eight years (all but 2004), the Titans were a pretty run-oriented team. In those non-2004 seasons, they averaged 285 completions. I'm not sure they'll go that low, but a projected difference of 10 catches doesn't matter much for what I'm trying to do here. For that reason, and because it makes the math a little easier, I'm going to assume the Titans end up with 300 catches.no comments