Each April, Football Outsiders reviews the draft that was six years ago, and I follow suit over here with a look at what the Titans did. There's a more complicated backstory involved than that (the first draft of the first draft review I did, for 1999, was written between the 2001 and 2002 seasons), but that's the way things work these days.

In 2007, the Titans were coming off an 8-8 season where they weren't really that close to 8-8-type good. Vince Young had done some nice things as a rookie, but clearly still had a long way to go to become a good NFL quarterback. Even with LenDale White and Chris Brown, the Titans were still clearly looking for at least more, if not an answer, at running back. Wide receiver was nowhere near a strength. The offensive line seemed set, but a right guard for 2008 was still a possible need. Defensively, cornerback seemed like a big need with Pacman Jones suspended even after the signing of Nick Harper. I also thought defensive tackle and end were both needs.

The Titans went into the 2007 draft with plenty of picks. They had all their original selections, beginning with #19 overall, plus an extra fourth round pick (#128) from the Ravens for Steve McNair, and two extra sixth round picks, #204 from the Chargers for Billy Volek and #206 from the Colts for their seventh-round pick in 2006. Unlike the previous couple seasons, though, they did not make any draft-day moves.

After the jump, the picks and my analysis.

I discussed this in my Levitre-Watt post, but winning the division can drive a lot of what teams do. This isn't anything specific to the Titans-the Ravens apparently look for tough players because they know they'll need to beat the Steelers and the Steelers had a well-developed culture of toughness. Since the Ruston Webster and Mike Munchak are in something at least very close to a win-or-you're-out situation in 2013, a greater focus than normal will be on winning immediately. With that in mind, let's look at the other AFC South teams and how they might affect how the Titans draft. Note this will be sort of "what I think they're thinking" more than "what I think they should be thinking"; undoubtedly it'll be influenced by my biases, but I'm trying to limit just how much.

Jacksonville Jaguars: We can't believe we lost to this team last year. We had no business losing to this team. They have nothing at the quarterback position, and they'll still have nothing after this month's draft, at least from a 2013 perspective. They'll have to rely on the run game, and MJD is getting up there, and a defense that was as bad as or worse than ours was last year. Sure, new head coach Gus Bradley may have them playing hard and we can't just assume we'll win beat them twice. Still, if we're not a lot better than them in 2013, we have no shot of being here in 2014.

Indianapolis Colts: We can't believe this team made the playoffs last year. They hardly had any more business going 11-5 than we did, winning a lot of close games against bad teams. Yeah, that Andrew Luck kid is going to be a real headache for the next 10 years. He'll probably be awesome in 2018, but he made a ton of rookie mistakes in 2012 and will probably make plenty more mistakes in 2013. He's good, but he's not Peyton Manning or Tom Brady yet. Reggie Wayne was the guy who gave us the most problems last year, especially when they moved him into the slot. He didn't burn us, but he was consistently productive. Jerry Gray moved Alterraun Verner out of the slot when he got here; is he really comfortable putting him there again? We hope so, because we're either depending on Coty Sensabaugh improving a lot this offseason or a rookie.

I haven't written much about the Gregg Williams hire, relatively speaking, but it leaves the Titans in sort of a weird place. Bringing in Gregg Williams was Mike Munchak's call, not Jerry Gray's. Gray is still at least nominally the defensive coordinator, but how much more than nominally? As the Philadelphia Eagles did when they hired Jim Washburn to coach the defensive linemen first, the Titans are telling us there's a bigger power on the defense than the coordinator. With that in mind, I thought it would be worth taking a look at what sort of players made up a Gregg Williams defense, to the extent it differs from a Jerry Gray defense, which may help shed light on the Titans' plans for this month's draft.

One thing Williams has been known for is more use of a 3-man front. Gray indicated in a recent radio interview the Titans could use a little bit of 3-4 this season, which opens up a separate can of worms. The Titans have run very little three-man front in Gray's tenure, and what there has been has been in the Ruby package with six defensive backs in obvious passing situations. Williams' preference for at times playing fewer defensive linemen has not led to him keeping less of them; rather, his past six squads (the Week 1 rosters of the 2006-07 Redskins, 2008 Jaguars, and 2009-11 Saints are my sample size) all included a typical 8 or 9 defensive lineman on the opening day roster. If there is a slight trend, it's in favor of more tweener types who are listed at DL, the non-pass-rushing ends who can also kick inside to defensive tackle. Jerry Gray seems to share the preference, though of course the Titans last year struggled to find a player they liked in that mold until, sort of, Jarius Wynn.

That Williams runs more fronts with fewer than four linemen does not mean a heavy emphasis on linebackers; rather, his teams never carried more than 6 linebackers and twice carried only 5. Yet, right now, it seems the Titans may carry seven. They seem to have six right now, between the three young starters, Moise Fokou, and key special teamers Tim Shaw and Patrick Bailey. Given Colin McCarthy's injury struggles, though, the Titans seem likely to add another linebacker they feel comfortable playing on defense. If the impetus behind Bum Phillips' switch to the 3-4 was having more good linebackers than defensive linemen, the Titans certainly don't seem poised for that switch right now.

In the secondary, Williams can be a touch heavy on defensive backs, several times keeping 10 of them. He's been at times a touch heavier on safeties, but nothing out of line. Without an intimate knowledge of how these teams were built and who their key special teams players were, it's hard to say how much that influences his defensive back-linebacker split in particular. The "natural" breakdown with a 53-man roster is 25 offense, 25 defense, 3 special teams. Williams' defenses have frequently been light by that standard, though, never keeping more than 25 players and even that only once. The Titans, by contrast, carried 26 defensive players Week 1 this past season. With the 46-man (now) active roster, which extra players are carried is a highly team-specific decision, but I found that interesting.

On the whole, though, assuming Gregg Williams is calling all of the shots and Jerry Gray none of them should not change what the defense looks like much at all. The interesting points to me for this exercise are two: (1) that Williams has frequently gone relatively light at linebacker, and (2) that his defenses have tended to start the season with only 24 players. Other than that, doing this little exercise and writing this post did not change my expectations for how the Titans will treat the defensive side of the ball in the upcoming draft.

The easiest, surest way for an NFL team to make the playoffs is to be the best team in your own division. The best way to be the best team in your own division is to not let the best players on the other teams in your division beat you.

The Houston Texans won the AFC South for the second consecutive season in 2012. Defensive end J.J. Watt was the best player on the Texans in 2012. J.J. Watt gave the Titans beaucoup problems in 2012, recording three sacks, four quarterback hits, and six tackles for loss in the two games between the two teams.

One offseason priority for the Tennessee Titans was to upgrade the interior of their offensive line, with the biggest move signing perhaps not one of the sexiest but one of the biggest free agents out there, offensive guard Andy Levitre. Levitre, whom the Titans have indicated will play the same left guard position he played for the Buffalo Bills in 2012, faced Watt in 2012.

To get a better idea for what Levitre means for the Titans' ability to at least limit, if not shut down, Watt, I went back and watched that Week 9 game in Houston between Levitre's Bills and Watt's Texans. In watching the game, I had a strong focus on the plays where Levitre was matched up with Watt and will note those in some detail. I'll also have some general thoughts on Levitre's overall traits and what he means to the Titans' offensive line. All that begins after the jump.

Mike Munchak at the season-ending press conference: "We know we're going to build the offensive line, that's exciting to me, get some young guys. We haven't done that since we drafted Roos and Stewart back in that year when we got them. We're going to get some young guys to add to the offensive line, which will be exciting to do."

Ruston Webster, at the Combine, on drafting a guard in the first round: "I think it can be a value. It needs to be a player that you see coming into your team and making a difference, upgrading you, and possibly being an outstanding player at the position. I’ve never been one to say you don’t take a guard in the first round, or whatever. Some people say don’t take a receiver in the first round. I’ve never looked at it that way. If there’s somebody there that’s a special player, then we’ll take a look at him."

Mike Munchak, at the Combine, on building the offensive line: "You don't only have to do first and second round picks at that position to get it done, but sometimes it's a good idea to have those types of guys."

Ruston Webster, in an appearance on 104.5 on March 14: "We will address the right side [of the offensive line] at some point in the draft, yeah. ... It's a deep draft for guards. First, second, third rounds, there'll be guards all the way through that could come in and start for us." (emphasis added)

Ruston Webster, in an appearance on PFT Live on March 19: "The inside of our offensive line, we really struggled with that last year, our guards and centers. The plan is to revamp that, and [signing Andy Levitre] was the first step that way."

Mike Munchak, in an appearance on March 25 on 102.5 in Nashville: "If we didn't get an offensive lineman, we may be sitting there thinking we need an offensive lineman in the first and second rounds. [Now that we've signed Andy Levitre] you can take the best player available that can come in and start, look at different spots on offense and defense, knowing there's still goals and positions we definitely want to fill. We know we want to do more on the offensive line. We know we want more defensive help. Now we don't have to panic."
Later on in the same appearance: "We have a couple spots left [to fill] on the offensive line and maybe elsewhere on the offense." (emphasis added)

Mike Munchak, in an appearance on March 28 on 104.5 in Nashville: "No big secret, we aged fast at offensive line and didn't want to have to build there all through the draft. We didn't want to go draft 2-3 offensive linemen and count on all three of them starting. [Added Andy Levitre and Rob Turner.] Now going into the draft to finish up what we did there. It's going to be a different look on the inside." (emphasis added)

Some of these comments were before the Titans signed Andy Levitre (and Rob Turner). All of these comments came before the Titans signed Chris Spencer. Free agents signed after the initial rush of free agency do not affect important plans.

There's not much to parse here, really. The Titans WILL be drafting a right guard on Thursday or Friday of this month's NFL draft, and you can take that to the bank.

As I did last pre-draft season, I thought it would be useful to look at some broad-scale trends regarding the Titans and the draft.

By position, here is what the Titans have done the past five seasons:

Note for convenience sake I compressed quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end into a catch-all "skill position" category. Worth noting is you have six of these guys on the field at any one time, compared to five OL, four DL, two or three LB, and four or five DB. That the Titans have taken more "skill position" players than players at any other position is exactly what you would expect this chart to show.

For more perspective, here's how often the Titans have drafted which position compared to what the league as a whole has done the past five years:

From this chart, it's very clear that the Titans do not actually draft a particularly large number of "skill position" players. What they have not drafted, we already knew, is offensive linemen, especially early in the draft. As I noted last offseason, this does not mean the Titans have not invested in the offensive line. Rather, they've done so just with money instead of just with draft picks or with a combination of money and draft picks.

By not spending draft picks on the offensive line, the Titans have "extra" picks. Those extra picks have gone not to the "skill positions" but to all the defensive, particularly the defensive line. I should stress here that the numbers involved are modest in absolute terms. The Titans have had 43 draft picks. Applying the percentage differentials, the Titans have drafted 3.8 fewer offensive linemen than the hypothetical average team, 2.7 more defensive linemen, 0.6 more linebackers, and 1.3 more defensive backs. That's over a five year period, which means so the differences outside of the offensive line and the defensive line are pretty insubstantial.

Other thoughts, many of which were true last year:

1. 2013 is the second draft for which Ruston Webster is the general manager. Mike Reinfeldt was general manager for four of the past five drafts. To the best of my understanding and belief, Mike Reinfeldt and Ruston Webster are different people and do not always agree with each other. The 2012 draft fit with several of the Titans' draft trends, but there is no guarantee at all the trends will continue.

2. The Titans draft defensive backs later than most teams. Talented corners in particular go early in the draft. The Titans have not taken a first- or second-round corner since Pacman Jones, and Ryan Mouton is the only corner they've taken in the third round since 2005.

3. Teams draft individual players, not positions and rounds. Further, drafts are an exercise in roster construction applied to specific team needs. The Titans have taken one offensive lineman in the first three rounds in the past 15 years. This year, the Titans have a glaring need for an immediate starter at right guard. I'll hit this in more detail in a subsequent post, but Ruston Webster has indicated the Titans are highly likely to take a player who can play right guard in the first three rounds. I strongly believe the Titans will take a right guard in the first three rounds, and don't care their draft history says otherwise.

The Tennessee Titan hit the free agent market again on Sunday, adding wide receiver Kevin Walter, formerly of the Houston Texans, and offensive lineman Chris Spencer, formerly of the Chicago Bears. Both players reportedly signed one-year deals for the veteran minimum.

When the Titans were first reported to be interested in Walter, I compared him to Justin McCareins c. 2008. Walter is slightly bigger (sort of, 6'3"/218 to 6'2"/217) and older (turning 32 in August, while McCareins turned 30 during the season), but both players are veterans whose only plus attribute is good blocking and whose production as a receiver will largely be the result of offensive design rather than them beating their man. Walter is not in my mind a lock to make the team, and I don't think his acquisition lets the Titans move on from Nate Washington any more than any other move they've made at the receiver position this offseason does. Rather, I think he's a different type of fifth/sixth receiver than Lavelle Hawkins; not better, mind you, but not worse and different.

In adding Spencer, the Titans fulfilled my request for somebody who's played right guard in the NFL before. Last year the Bears had him make the anti-Leroy Harris transition from right to left guard, and it apparently went about as well as Leroy's did. He made it two games before being benched, though he made it back into the lineup and started five of the ten games he was active. 2012 was his second season in Chicago. He spent the first six years of his career in Seattle after the Seahawks made him one of the rare centers drafted in the first round in 2005. I still believe the Titans are highly likely to draft a right guard early in this month's draft, but adding Spencer gives them a fallback option if need be for whatever reason. Like Walter, though, I would not classify him as a lock to make the team.